Challenge to "Consensus" on Global Warming

WASHINGTON, Sept. 12 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A new analysis of peer-reviewed literature reveals that more than 500 scientists have published evidence refuting at least one element of current man-made global warming scares.

More than 300 of the scientists found evidence that 1) a natural moderate 1,500-year climate cycle has produced more than a dozen global warmings similar to ours since the last Ice Age and/or that 2) our Modern Warming is linked strongly to variations in the sun's irradiance.

"This data and the list of scientists make a mockery of recent claims that a scientific consensus blames humans as the primary cause of global temperature increases since 1850," said Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Dennis Avery.

The rest of the article is here.

Another Strike Against Bad Scientific Arguments

Yet another report has come out disputing the concept of a "consensus" of scientists who promote the "humans are responsible for cataclysmic global climate change" hysteria. This one's big.

In his propaganda piece "An Inconvenient Truth," Al Gore cites a 2004 study by history professor Naomi Oreskes of 928 scientific articles written from 1993 to 2003. In this study, Oreskes claims that no articles disputed the alarmists' theory. She claimed (athough her research has been disputed) that a majority supported the "consensus view," defined as humans having at least some effect on global climate change. This is the origin of the argument of "consensus." (Sidebar: Look here to see what damage a consensus of scientists can do.)

Remember the watered-down definition of "consensus" here. Not only does it not require supporting that man is the primary cause of warming, it also doesn't require any belief or support for catastrophic global warming.

Medical researcher Dr. Klaus-Martin Schulte recently updated this research. Using the same database and search terms as Oreskes, he examined all papers published from 2004 to February 2007.

Of 528 total papers on climate change, only 38 (7%) gave an explicit endorsement of the consensus. If one considers "implicit" endorsement (accepting the consensus without explicit statement), the figure rises to 45%. However, while only 32 papers (6%) reject the consensus outright, the largest category (48%) are neutral papers, refusing to either accept or reject the hypothesis. There is no "consensus."

In fact, of all papers published in this period (2004 to February 2007), only a single one makes any reference to climate change leading to catastrophic results.

Schulte's survey contradicts the United Nation IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (2007.) Despite media claims of "thousands of scientists" involved in the report, the actual text is written by a much smaller number of "lead authors."

The introductory "Summary for Policymakers" -- the portion always quoted in the media -- is written not by scientists at all, but by politicians, and approved, word-by-word, by political representatives from member nations. By IPCC policy, the individual report chapters -- the only text actually written by scientists -- are edited to "ensure compliance" with the summary.

What a "Consensus" of Scientists Can Do

In the 1970's, a consensus of oceanographers and environmental scientists agreed that placing old tires in the ocean would be a good idea. It would provide artificial reefs for marine life and free up space in crowded landfills.

Now the tires are creating an ecological disaster. Sea critters are not building on the tires in significant amounts. The tires are either degrading, with pieces of rubber scattered throughout the oceanscape, or coming loose completely, littering the beaches and ocean floor for thousands of square miles.

The "experts" who advocated the idea now react with a shrug. Ray McAllister, a professor of ocean engineering at Florida Atlantic University who was instrumental in organizing a project in Florida, said: "I look back now and see it was a bad idea." Meanwhile, government money is being spent to try to repair the ecological disaster.

This vividly illustrates what happens when a so-called "consensus" of experts determines a solution based on a faulty premise. The remedy is worse than the original problem, and the experts walk away, leaving the rest of us to clean up their mess.

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This should make all the global warming conspiracy fanatics pause and consider what the consequences of their "solutions" might be. As I often tell my children, "Consensus does not mean correctness."

Other People Say Smart Stuff IV

Dr. Thomas Sowell is the smartest man in America. Among other accomplishments, he holds a Ph.D in economics and is currently a Senior Fellow with the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

He has written a series of articles entitled "Global Hot Air." In these articles he has so far pointed out that

• The list of so-called "consensus of scientists" includes everything from "nuclear physicists to people who study insects, volcanoes, and endocrine glands -- none of whom is an expert on weather or climate, but all of whom can be listed as scientists, to impress people who don't scrutinize the list any further."
• Many distinguished climatologists who have real credentials oppose the concept of "manmade global warming."
• "There has been a full court press to convince the public that 'everybody knows' that a catastrophic global warming looms over us, that human beings are the cause of it, and that the only solution is to turn more money and power over to the government to stop us from our dangerous ways of living."
• The media present sensational and inaccurate headlines and stories to promote the idea of "manmade global warming."
• The big hurricane season in 2005 was touted in the media as caused by, and proof of, global warming. Predictions were that 2006 would be even worse. The fact that there was practically no hurricane season in 2006 went unmentioned.

Read Sowell's columns. He's smart and articulate.