Would You Believe Five Days?

An interview with Dr. Reid A. Bryson* in the Wisconsin Energy Cooperative News (WECN) revealed what a prominent climatologist thinks about manmade climate change.
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(Note: "Outward heat radiation" is the amount of heat from the sun which is either absorbed or reflected back.)
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“All this argument is the temperature going up or not, it’s absurd,” Bryson continues. “Of course it’s going up. It has gone up since the early 1800s, before the Industrial Revolution, because we’re coming out of the Little Ice Age, not because we’re putting more carbon dioxide into the air.”
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WECN: There’s been warming over the past 150 years and even though it’s less than one degree, Celsius, something had to cause it. The usual suspect is the “greenhouse effect,” various atmospheric gases trapping solar energy, preventing it being reflected back into space.
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We ask Bryson what could be making the key difference.
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WECN: Eighty percent of the heat radiated back from the surface is absorbed in the first 30 feet by water vapor…

Reid: And how much is absorbed by carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide.

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Researchers run widely publicized mathematical models through supercomputers to generate climate scenarios 50 or 100 years in the future.

Asked to evaluate the models’ long-range predictive ability, Dr. Reid replies: “Do you believe a five-day forecast?”

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* Dr. Reid A. Bryson holds the 30th PhD in Meteorology granted in the history of American education. Emeritus Professor and founding chairman of the University of Wisconsin Department of Meteorology—now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences—in the 1970s he became the first director of what’s now the UW’s Gaylord Nelson Institute of Environmental Studies. He’s a member of the United Nations Global 500 Roll of Honor—created, the U.N. says, to recognize “outstanding achievements in the protection and improvement of the environment.” He has authored five books and more than 230 other publications and was identified by the British Institute of Geographers as the most frequently cited climatologist in the world.