Today's the day

I don't like political polls. Pollsters ask uninformed people that don't vote who they think will be elected, and the results dominate the national discussion.  Ask them about soap or soda, and the results will be remarkably accurate. The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.

Nonetheless, polls are everywhere, both in their findings and in the media.  Nobody ever seems to remember which polls were accurate last time, so for posterity's sake I created a table with the most up-to-date poll results I could find.  For kicks I also created one showing various pundits' predictions of the final electoral vote.

Oh, and go vote Republican, early and often.

More about polls

Most of the mainstream polls have had Obama in the lead for the last several weeks. However, one significant poll is one in which Romney leads -- the enthusiasm measurement.

The Battleground Tracking poll shows that Romney has a 13-point lead among voters who are "extremely likely" to vote.  What's more, Romney's leads are significant among elderly and white voters, who have traditionally been high turnout groups.  Meanwhile, Obama leads among young voters, blacks and latinos, who -- except for 2008 -- are not traditionally energized to vote, and their enthusiasm is down significantly from their 2008 highs. 

So, although polls which ask random Americans or even registered voters may show Obama with a big lead, those likely to vote favor Romney.  However, as I've said before, the only poll that really matters is the one on November 6.

How's that re-election coming along, Mr. President?

From the most recent Gallup poll:

Obama loses to (any) Republican candidate by eight points!

The "Anybody But Obama" ticket's looking pretty strong.

Listening to those who know best

Louisianans were polled in mid-June for their opinions on offshore drilling, and how various politicians have handled the situation with the BP oil spill.  (You can see the full poll results here.)  What was particularly striking is their attitude about Obama.  The residents of the unluckiest state in recent years think Obama has done worse in handling the spill than Bush handled Hurricane Katrina -- the former "worst response ever" example.

Why Polls Shouldn't Matter

If you want to find out what people want in dishwashing liquid, bath soap, toilet paper or deodorant, marketing research is the tool to use. Personal preference in items we use in our daily lives is part of our culture. We know what we like.

The same principle applied to politics is a disaster. I've made no secret of my disdain for polls and how the media use them to generate the stories that they want to promote. A recent study revealed the fruitlessness of polling Americans to ask them their opinion on political matters.

The Intercollegiate Studies Institute (ISI) conducted a survey of 2500 Americans, quizzing them about American civics. The average score of all respondents was 49%. College educators did a bit better, at 55%. Something that may or may not surprise you: political officeholders scored 44% -- lower than the average person surveyed. (Take the quiz yourself here.)

I'm not criticizing anyone who doesn't score high on the quiz -- we each have our own strengths and interests. But the ignorance of Americans that the survey revealed illustrates the worthlessness of polls that ask Americans their "opinion" about something going on in politics. As we saw from the survey of Obama voters, most opinions are based on ignorance.

Pollsters should stick to soap. Everyone else should ignore polls.


(For those who are curious, I scored 93.4% on the quiz.)

You Might Call It Cognitive Dissonance

Yahoo published an article which tells how miserable Americans think things are. 88% of Democrats and 62% of Republicans say they think "things in this country are headed off on the wrong track."

However, a top paragraph in the article says: "most in the U.S. say they are personally happy and feel in control of their lives and finances, according to an extensive Associated Press-Yahoo! News survey on the mood of voters."

66% say they are personally happy and feel in control of their lives and finances, but that things are on the wrong track. In other words, "I'm doing okay, but I hear things are bad everywhere else."

The power of the media, folks.


To give you an idea of the overall tone of the poll, two of the questions were:

1) "Do you favor or oppose having the federal government intervene to reduce the income differences between the richest and poorest Americans?" (42% favor! How do you think the "federal government" would go about implementing this idea?)

Consider this: Economist Thomas Sowel wrote an article in which he analyzes income data from the Internal Revenue Service. People in the bottom fifth of income-tax filers in 1996 had their incomes increase by 91 percent by 2005. The top one percent -- "the rich" who are supposed to be monopolizing the money, according to the left -- saw their incomes decline by a whopping 26 percent. Meanwhile, the average taxpayers' real income increased by 24 percent between 1996 and 2005.

2) "Do you favor or oppose canceling the tax cuts passed since 2001 for people who are wealthy?" (41% favor.)

This, despite the fact that the tax rate cuts implemented by the Bush administration have increased the amount of taxes the wealthy pay. (The top 25% of wage earners pay 84.6% of all federal income taxes.)

Dante's Eighth Circle of Hell is reserved for politicians who engage in and exploit the politics of envy and covetousness.